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Thursday, October 25, 2007

Craft beer prices, expect price hikes

The beer industry is a buzz with recently announced increases in hops prices. In short, we're in the midst of a worldwide hops shortage that will surely send craft beer prices on the rise this year. Poor weather, warehouse fires, and reduced growing acreage all contribute to this year's harvest deficit. For detailed information, see this article at Star-Telegram. It would appear large breweries like Bud, Miller, and Coors will be minimally impacted at most. Having contracted their prices years in advance coupled with the fact that their beers contain only trace amounts of hops, BMC will surely weather this storm without damage. The impact will hit craft brewers, who typically brew intensely hopped beers and operate on smaller margins. Bigger, well known craft brewers are likely to have pricing contracts as well, with the smaller, lesser known local breweries fighting for leftovers. In fact, many predict small local breweries could be priced right out of business. Only time will tell, but I think you can bet on see some different beers at your local brewpub this year. Double IPA's might well become a rarity, being replaced by lagers and lesser hopped ales like English Bitters, wheat beer, and other milder varieties. Likewise, I would look for unique new recipes utilizing hops varieties that are available to smaller craft breweries. Analysts predict the hops crops to rebound in a few years, so hopefully the situation is only temporary. Who knows, maybe the shortage will force some brewing creativity resulting in some new and interesting styles.

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